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		Points of View Posted June 27, 2005 Guest Column and photos © 2005 Ray Molzon Published with Permission

Peak Oil

By Ray Molzon

HANCOCK -- Readers who frequent the Keweenaw Now discussion forum may recall the April Fool's Day joke professing plans for a nuclear power plant construction somewhere in the region. While this claim was not true, the major reason behind its effectiveness was the credibility of such an event. It is commonly known that social engineers will make important decisions affecting a community with little or no input from the citizenry; sometimes these decisions backfire; but it seems, more often than not, the people will make some quiet noise and then just settle back down into complacency.

Making this hoax even more believable, however, is the impending energy crisis the likes of which our modern world has never before experienced. I am referring to Peak Oil, a phrase alluding to the moment in time when global oil production reaches a climax and the predicted consequences of such an apex.

The consensus is that petroleum is a nonrenewable resource and thus limited in its abundance. Of course, we've been hearing this our entire lives, along with the claim that oil will keep flowing long into the future, an irrelevant issue to the Peak Oil theory. We should not be worried about the world's oil wells drying up, but rather, the day when they will no longer be able to procure as much as they did the day before -- a point in time which some believe is five or ten years down the road, if not already passed.

While this may seem relatively trivial to most, there are a few more pieces to the puzzle that must be laid before the gravity of the situation dawns. First of all, we must recognize the level to which our entire global economy is dependent on the consumption of petroleum products. Not only is it the fuel of choice for transporting people and the goods we consume, it is used in the production of an inestimable number of those goods. The post-war petrochemical revolution was responsible for a slew of products which are easily taken for granted today. From PVC to polyester, cosmetics to electronics, ball-point pens, laundry detergents, lubricating oils, varnishes and dashboards, petroleum is used in the manufacturing, not to mention packaging, of practically anything one would consider modern.

Petroleum derivatives are used in the manufacture and packaging of commonplace consumer goods such as these. It is practically impossible in our modern world to be independent of this precious resource. (Photo © 2005 Ray Molzon. Reprinted with permission.)

Not only do we require petroleum and its derivatives for practical living, but the world needs an ever-increasing supply of it. Our own nation has done practically nothing to conserve energy consumption (indeed, one might say we boast of our wastefulness), while much of the remaining world is desperately trying to raise their standard of living to a level most Americans would find uncomfortable. Couple this with the widely accepted claim that petroleum, by far the most important energy source, will begin to decrease in availability in the near future; and the crisis begins to emerge.

Given knowledge of human nature and the organizations which dominate the world today, the consequences of an energy deficit, while not infallibly predictable, are quite dire and leave little room for hope. Wars over the control of precious oil fields will be the norm (and appear to have already begun); famine will touch all corners of the globe; and an economy which relies on a paradigm of continuous growth, as opposed to a more realistic notion of sustainability, will be shattered, the aftermath of which will likely lead to yet more war.

I know these predictions sound rather incredible; but, unlike other Doomsday prophecies, this theory does not rely on supernatural interventions or interpretations of mystical writings. It is primarily contingent on the existence of the peak, which many experts from a wide array of fields hold to be true. Of course, the future always holds uncertainty, which could be our greatest hope. There is growing skepticism in the belief that petroleum is indeed nonrenewable; should this be the case, however, we are still plagued with the problems of a rather destructive energy binge, which cannot be ignored.

A number of books have been written on this subject; numerous websites explain it in fine detail. See, for example, http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, which contains an energetic description and plenty of links.* A docudrama, Oil Storm, ponders the effects of a national oil shortage. Yet the notion of Peak Oil has yet to make it into the mainstream press. Before any positive changes can be made to avert disaster, it seems the "liberal media" must be willing to address the issue, preferably with a rational, objective perspective. Until this happens, it would appear any chances of salvation will only grow slimmer.

Editor's notes: *Follow the links Ray suggests and see how dependent our food is on oil. Read more about guest author Ray Molzon.

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Note: Views expressed by our guest columnists are not necessarily the views of Keweenaw Now.