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		Points of View November 10, 2001 Guest Column © 2001 Ron Martin, Jr. Published with Permission

More misery in store for a longsuffering people

Go to Part 1: On the Military Front

Go to Part 2: The Humanitarian Crisis

Part 3: Rebuilding a Devastated Country

November 7, 2001

Although the Taliban have made it difficult for the people of Afghanistan, they have improved some conditions by disarming, bringing stability to and ensuring freedom of movement throughout much of the country. The current military action could potentially lead to a breakdown in law and order resulting in fighting throughout the country.

Guest author Ron Martin, left, speaks at a public forum, "Views of America from other places," at Finlandia University's Finnish-American Heritage Center on Oct.30, 2001. Other panel members pictured are, from left, Mustafa Ishaq of the United Arab Emirates, president of the Michigan Tech International Club; MTU student Taimoor Hazir of Pakistan; Antti Jussila and Merina Appel, Finlandia University students from Finland. (Photo by Michele Anderson) Watch for a story on the forum soon.

Some Taliban members were even beaten for trying to stop Arab nationals from looting a relief agency in Kandahar. Reports that the Taliban have been arming civilians suggest increased potential for further instability.

This potential for instability highlights the need not just for physical reconstruction of the country, but more crucially, the civil reconstruction of the country and especially a new government. If the Taliban lose power, disarming the population should be a top priority. 

U.N. Special Envoy to Afghanistan, Laktar Brahimi, said a U.N. peacekeeping force is the least desirable option. He noted U.N. oversight of an Afghan force would be preferable instead. Because the Afghans are fiercely independent and many are suspicious of or dislike the U.N., they would not tolerate becoming a protectorate. However, the U.N. could be a facilitator working with Afghans, instead of dictating to them.

Tasks and Expectations for a New Government

It is essential to have a functional and transparent government immediately tasked with security and humanitarian relief. The government must also build governing and judiciary institutions and provide civil and public services. Health, education and welfare should all be a priority.

Any government formed in the aftermath of the Taliban should be charged with drawing up a constitution that ensures a minimum level of human rights for all citizens, including women, as prescribed in the U.N. Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It may be impossible to exclude military commanders, but they must be committed to using peaceful means and willing to compromise. Those who have violated human rights and extremists should be excluded.

Although democracy may not provide an immediate solution, Afghans must eventually be empowered and have a say in shaping their country's future. Since Afghanistan first needs stability and may need several years to prepare for democratic elections, the initial government should be a transitional one serving until elections are organized. Because of the tribal and ethnic divisions of Afghanistan, a loose federal coalition with power devolved to regional leaders may be most practical.

Critics protest that it is premature to be talking about a new government for Afghanistan; but should the Taliban fall without an alternative in place, there would almost certainly be anarchy. In fact, the lack of an alternative government and the fear of anarchy have often been cited as reasons the U.S. has not been more aggressive in removing the Taliban.

The West has been frantically trying to cobble together an alternative government to replace the Taliban if and when they lose power. As in the past, the rest of the world has felt compelled to shape Afghanistan's future.

The West and the U.S. want a stable, friendly, non-fundamentalist government that will not harbor terrorists or produce opium and will provide access to vast Central Asian oil reserves. Pakistan also wants access to Central Asia and, with a sizable ethnic Pashtoon minority, would like to see Pashtoons, including moderate Taliban members, in the new Afghan government.

Iran, India and Russia -- who all consider Afghanistan strategically important -- do not want any former Taliban members in the new government. These nations favor a government dominated by the opposition Northern Alliance, whom they have been supporting. Russia, hoping to prevent fundamentalist Islam from spreading to its border with Central Asia, and India, seeking allies against hostile Pakistan, have lobbied the Central Asian countries of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to support the Northern Alliance.

It is in everybody's interest, especially landlocked Afghanistan's, that Afghanistan have, if not excellent, at least good working relations with regional neighbors and the West. Everyone agrees that the government must be broad-based -- to include all ethnic groups -- and that all Afghans must be involved in choosing the new government. Although democracy may not provide an immediate solution, Afghans must eventually be empowered and have a say in shaping their country's future.

Forming a New Government

The first step essential to forming a new and broadly accepted government is the highly symbolic act of having different leaders who represent a cross-section of the Afghan population come together. One problem is finding credible leaders amongst the numerous players in Afghan politics. 

• The former king, Mohammad Zahir Shah, has called for the formation of a broad-based Loya Jirga (Grand Council) to elect a new leader, if and when the Taliban are overthrown. Zahir Shah, who is an ethnic Pashtoon and remembered nostalgically for his peaceful if unspectacular rule, is thought to be a popular figure whom many Afghans will rally around. His critics say he is too old and has been outside the country for too long.
   
• Pir Syed Ahmad Gailani, an ethnic Pashtoon and spiritual leader of a minority Sufi Muslim sect, is a moderate, a supporter of Zahir Shah. Ahmad Gailani is tipped as a possible future prime minister. In October, he led a meeting with various tribal leaders in Peshawar to discuss a future government, but nobody from the Northern Alliance attended.
   
• Hamid Karzai, an educated, Western-oriented aid to Zahir Shah, is an influential Pashtoon tribal leader who initially supported the Taliban but abandoned them, alleging they had come under the control of Pakistan. He recently slipped into Afghanistan to gather support for a new government but came under attack by the Taliban. His supporters complain that U.S. claims of his rescue by Special Forces will hurt his reputation because U.S. bombing is unpopular.
   
• Burhanuddin Rabbani, an ethnic Tajik, is the ousted former president from the tumultuous period of ethnic killing and random rocket attacks in Kabul. He is the political leader of the Northern Alliance and is still recognized by the U.N. and many nations as the legitimate leader of Afghanistan.
   
• Ismael Khan, an ethnic Tajik, captured Herat from the Soviets and later became its mayor. He made a legendary escape from a Taliban jail last year; and his forces, thought to be financed by Iran, are pushing toward Herat. He also has a relatively good human rights record.
   
• On the other hand, General Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek warlord, would be unacceptable because of his questionable human rights record. He frequently switched allegiances before the Taliban finally expelled him from his northern stronghold of Mazar-i-Sharif. He is thought to be supported by Turkey because of the common cultural heritage between Turks and Uzbeks.
   
• Karim Khalili is leader of the Hezb-e-Wahdat (Unity Party), which represents the ethnic Hazara minority of Shiite Muslims. He is currently believed to be in central Afghanistan and supported by Iran. 

Despite the Taliban's refusal to negotiate in the past and despite the demands by Iran, Russia and India that the Taliban be excluded from a future government, many Afghans still support the Taliban -- which is an ideological movement, not a political party. That is why some relatively moderate and credible Taliban leaders should be identified and brought into a future government.

Reconstruction

Although past hostilities and ethnic, political, and religious differences will make reconciliation difficult, the hope is that the shared experience of more than twenty years of suffering will bring Afghans together. Under pressure from the international community, there is also a sense that this may be their best and last chance to bring peace to their country. 

Reconstruction will also be required to sustain peace. This will require technical and financial assistance from the international community but, more importantly, the effort and cooperation of Afghans themselves. Skilled and educated Afghans who fled the decades of war should be encouraged to return and help rebuild their country.

An international donor conference should be convened to raise money for reconstruction, but funds should be carefully monitored to avoid theft and corruption. Massive reconstruction of infrastructure, agriculture and the economy will all be required.

This is all predicated on the fall of the Taliban. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw explained that the Taliban may fall in stages but rebuilding should occur immediately in places where Taliban lose control. Many Afghans hope the rest of the world will not forget their plight after the Taliban are removed and the fighting ends.

The international community is much more committed to finding a solution; neighboring countries are more willing to compromise; and a recent poll in the US shows public opinion favors greater involvement in world affairs. There are no polls in Afghanistan; but public opinion is reflected by the strength of the national currency, the Afghani. It has recently strengthened for the first time since the U.S. bombing began.

By bringing peace and stability to Afghanistan, the U.S. will prevent one country from being used as a training ground and launch pad for terrorist groups. However, there are several other Afghanistans; and respect for democracy and human rights, economic development and political involvement are more effective than bombing.

Related Links

Go to Part 1: On the Military Front

Go to Part 2: The Humanitarian Crisis

Learn more about the author of this guest column, Ron Martin, Jr.

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